The SBC Interview

The pre-eminent status of Laurence Lambourn’s Equine Investments is extremely well known inside top gambling circles. Indeed, the mystique surrounding his service has only really been rivalled by Kevin Booth’s Isiris in its 1990s prime.

But really that’s where the comparisons between the two vastly different services begin and end. Like Booth, Laurence Lambourn is rightly feared by the bookmakers for the weight of shrewd money he brings to the party, but his low key, modest approach to life is as refreshing as it is rare in an industry where success so often goes to tipsters’ heads...and almost inevitably precludes a fall from grace.

As such the Equine Investments front-man wisely treats those ‘twin impostors’ triumph and disaster with the same equanimity. It is an even-minded approach that he encourages as a sensible blueprint for anyone looking to bet ‘professionally’.

Last season proved to be a disappointing one by the standards of a service that have swept all before them for seven years (they have maintained a remarkable 30%+ ROI in that time), but any doubts that they might have suddenly lost their way have been put to bed since.

EI’s service resumed in December when important changes were implemented with a trademark lack of fanfare. Laurence’s enigmatic former associate ‘Tim’ returned to the fold to share the burden of a service offer that is split into two. The split created a main service and a so-called larger volume Turnover Service, both of which are closed to new members. The split, Laurence claims, was a mechanism for decreasing membership numbers to aid price stability in the main service. It was also a customer service response to members’ requirements in terms of specific message times and lower daily bet volumes. The obvious solution was a split to two distinct services.

The chart below shows that ROI has generally kept within a range of between 30% ROI and 50% ROI in the 144 bets since recommencing after their break in Autumn 2010, keeping pace with the returns generated throughout this incredible track record.

Looking at that record as a whole, in 2,529 bets since April 2004, every £100 put on the line has returned an average of £132.57, a feat no other racing tipsters, in our experience, have managed to consistently emulate - never mind sustain. Keeping up this level of returns over seven years is unrivalled amongst tipping services in both our network and our anecdotal knowledge.

Laurence’s Turnover Service, which he discusses below (in his answer to Question Eight) was launched in May 2010 and, we are glad to report, has maintained the same high standards with returns of 55.51pts profit from 239pts staked at an ROI of 23% (between Nov 2010 and April 2011).

Here in an exclusive interview, Equine Investments’ main man gives us a rundown on his new service, suggests seeking out under-bet trainers as a potential angle for members and also offers SBC readers a series of hints to aid their own betting.

1. At the time of writing, you'd probably be considered to be the best racing service out there in terms of quality, consistency and returns but clearly, your process in getting there has seen a few bumps and scrapes. What would you consider the most important lessons that a punter has to learn along the way?

Discipline and good record keeping (as much detail as possible) - will help you to identify your most profitable/unprofitable areas. Consistency in staking is very important too. You should have defined staking rules written down and stick to them.

2. Would it be right to talk about your style of betting as a mix of form work, race reading and pace analysis? How do those three components work together and how would someone follow your example if they wanted to work in a similar vein?
Yes, I record all racing and watch the previous day’s races the next afternoon after I'm done sending out any advices. I'm looking for horses that have run well despite any bias whether it be pace, track or draw. I make notes about each horse using the Racing Post online and ascribe each one to three stars depending on how well I thought the noted horses ran against the bias. Along with traditional form study, I use three sets of commercial ratings, two sets of speed figures and a pace program written for me that predicts the shape of how the race might pan out.

3. Can you give us a breakdown of how you price up a racecard and create and sift your shortlist of potential selections?
It can vary slightly, but in the main I'll be mostly concentrating on races where I have noted runners. Using normal form study I will quickly go through the race and get a general 'feel' for it and weigh up what sort of performance might be required to win it. Using my printed sheets with all the runners, ratings and pace on them, I will start with my noted runner and see if he might have conditions to suit (eg pace make up, draw, trip etc). If everything looks acceptable (remember there will be differing degrees of acceptance) I will note down on my sheet that he has a one star chance. It takes a bit of practice, experience and some gut feeling but I have a note in my head of how much I like him in today’s conditions. I will go through each runner making small notes - 1/2 chance 1/4 chance etc. I know it sounds complicated but this is how I get a price for my horse. In an eight runner race for example, my noted runner will have one chance there might be another four runners with half a chance each and the remaining three runners might have 1/4 chance each. So there are 3.75 chances which is 11/4 true odds for one chance, so I now know my horse is a true 11/4 shot. After building in a margin for error and profit I'll likely want 100/30 or bigger, the bigger margin above my true odds the bigger the stake. It's not always about one horse, one of the 1/2 chance horses for example might be well overpriced and I'll be on that one as well.

4. How do you rate the key components of a race, (such as the going, form, likely pace, track type etc) in terms of likely importance in influencing the result?
If I insisted we wait for the from horse to have his going with the pace to suit at the right course etc he'll likely be favourite and his chance will be known by the market on most occasions. With that scenario there will be little edge if any and there will be too few bets for me using those strict criteria. I think these factors are all important to differing degrees, If my noted runner hasn't run on the soft ground for example but I still think the market has missed him to some degree I will still strike the bet specially so, if I feel he might have other factors in his favour or I’m sure he's ready to run his race. I prefer to get a balance of factors and still take my chance at the right price even if everything might not be in the horses favour. Of course, if it's completely obvious my horse doesn't act on soft, for example, then I won't bet him.

5. Are there any shortcuts that the part-time punter can make use of or is there simply no way to bet successfully without making it a full-time job?
There is too much racing for the part time punter to cover so he has to specialise, that's up to the individual, it might be sprint handicaps for older horses or two year old maidens for example.

6. It seems to me that the betting shop punter consistently comes unstuck chasing horses over a series of losing runs on the basis of a perceived 'soft run' or 'hidden potential' at the start of their sequence. You clearly keep notes on horses you have noted in running but how do you factor in those horse's chances into a whole new race, with a whole new set of variables?
You can lose a lot of money on these animals and there are no hard and fast rules. If you think one has been run down the handicap under the wrong conditions then bet them once or twice when you think they have conditions to suit at a fair price, don't follow them off a cliff.

7. By your excellent standards you had a poor year last year. How do you cope when things are going wrong and what advice can you give us?
I just keep plugging away using the same methods as I always have, losing runs are part and parcel of punting and dealing with them is key to making long term profits.

8. You have made a number of changes this year, not least splitting your service into two (a main service and a service with a higher turnover of bets). How did you know what changes were required and what are the issues that we should focus in on if we find our own betting isn't working out? For instance, how long should we continue with our usual course and where are the areas where things tend to go wrong for punters?
My mentions were showing a good profit so I decided I wanted them on account and I created a turnover service so I could subsidise the reduction in clients from the main service due to prices coming under too much pressure too quickly. This wasn't the only reason, there were too many updates on the main account and I understand it's tough for people who have jobs to follow the service effectively. The turnover service (bets sent out anytime between 9.30 am and 12.30pm) enabled people to choose which service might suit them most and there is less pressure on me to stick to update times.
When things are going wrong you need to have the courage of your convictions. If you have got a proven method then stick to it. I believe that starting price is a massive factor in the horses chance of winning so if a punter finds things going wrong for a lengthy spell then I'd advise them to check what price they got against SP. Chances are if you are still beating SP on average then you just need to ride out the tricky period, however if you find that SP is bigger on average then you need to have a look at your methods. Remember price is everything and you must always seek out the best price on offer for you selections.

9. Unlike most other services you seem to intrinsically understand the link between bet turnover and ROI. Can you explain that for us here?
I know my long term edge is about 30% and I can find around 250 main account bets a year so if I’m wanting to make say 20k a year I know that £20,000/30% (ROI) =£ 66666.66/250 = £266.66 (this is the stake I need per bet).

Basically, for every £100 invested it will make me a £30 profit on average in the long run. If a service/punter has a 10% long term return on investment then they need 750 bets to get the same return using the same stakes for each.

10. Lastly, you tell me that our members can make a bit of headway by concentrating on underbet trainers. Who are they and how do we make use of them as a strategy.
Well, there are many trainers who are underbet, you'll have to do your own research but a quick example is Richard Guest. Backing all his handicap runners over the last five years has produced a profit of over 80 points from over 800 horses with a strike rate of 10%. I'm not suggesting you go in blindly and bet all his handicap horses but do your research and find two or three similarly underbet trainers and delve into how they operate and where their winners come from. That can be a great source of profits.

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